The United Kingdom joined the recession, and the United States, Germany and the whole of the euro area.One exception, France escapes the recession thanks to a tiny rise (+0.1 per cent) in the GDP from the third quarter. But the fourth quarter will be heavily negative.
The figure is astonishing because everyone was expecting a negative figure and preparing for a recession, which is technically two consecutive quarters of negative growth. France is not technically in recession but government policies are beginning to have an impact.
Household comsuption and business investment are two drivers which in the third quarter pushed France past Germany and Britain.
The purchasing power of the French has declined, several banks lost a lot of money like "Caisse d'epargne" for example which lost 1 billion euros in 2008.
The damages are: mistrust on behalf of the French towards their banks. By taking account of the forecasts I am pessimistic but thus the economy with many fluctuations it is not new, the only thing that we must do is wait. The results will be seen that over a long time.
Thursday, 29 January 2009
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